Analyzing the Straw Poll

Before beginning this post I feel that in the spirit of full disclosure and honesty, you all should know that I helped the Cuccinelli Campaign collect petitions and that at various times, the only names ever on my petitions were McDonnell, Bolling, Cuccinelli, and for fewer of them, also Brownlee and Foster.

The common feeling that Ken Cuccinelli cemented his favorite status for the AG nomination by winning the AG Straw Poll at the Advance may be a false presumption. In a recent email Cuccinelli sent to supporters, he makes the following comments:

We won the straw poll convincingly: 48% to 38% to 14%.  So, I guess we won the debate! But this is even more interesting than it looks on the surface.  Why?  Well, straw polls are often used by campaigns to try and prove their grassroots prowess (e.g., Ron Paul in NoVa in 2008), and Brownlee’s campaign tried to do that this weekend, and they lost.

Remember, Dave Foster and I were four hours from home by car, while the Advance was held in John Brownlee’s back yard.  And Brownlee attempted to take advantage of that fact by bussing people in for the straw poll.  Not an unreasonable strategy, but if you’re gonna bus ‘em in, you better win! … whoops!

Not only did Brownlee rent busses, he paid for Advance tickets as well.

Objectively looking at the surface of the results, I agree with Senator Cuccinelli that he did convincingly win the straw poll, but look deeper and an alarming trend emerges. The race for AG is a three way fight between well qualified men who would all do a good job as AG, and it is this fact that should alarm the Cuccinelli camp. In the aforementioned email, Senator Cuccinelli points out that the Brownlee Campaign transported supporters to the Homestead via bus and paid their admission in order to win the straw poll. Apparently this didn’t work because Cuccinelli won. Unfortunately the good senator is mistaken, as I have been assured by many in the know that the Brownlee campaign DID NOT bus in people for the straw poll. That fact aside, the numbers do not lie.

The Cuccinelli campaign needs to take a long hard look in the mirror and reconsider their front runner status. Cuccinelli captured roughly 48% of the people voting in the straw poll, leaving the remaining 52% to Brownlee and Foster. Cuccinelli’s 48% is a red flag that the Senator is not running as strong as he believes. If this trend continues to the convention, Cuccinelli will win the first ballot and lose the nomination to John Brownlee.

Now you may be asking, how is this possible?  Well, after the first ballot Foster will be in third and be dropped out of the race, Foster’s supporters will most likely fall to Brownlee,  giving him the majority needed for the nomination.  A prime example of this would be the 2007 1st district convention which nominated Congressman Rob Wittman to replace the late Jo Ann Davis. The front runner going into that convention was businessman Paul Jost who led every ballot until the 6th when the remaining candidates rallied behind Wittman denying the front runner Jost the nomination.

Taking a deeper look at the straw poll shows that the Cuccinelli campaign really isn’t in as good a position that we all believe. Combine the straw poll results with Brownlee’s expected money edge and compound that with Cuccinelli’s fund raising blackout when the General Assembly is in session, and this is shaping up to be a long winter for the Cuccinelli camp.

Will history repeat itself in the AG race? Only time will tell.